Part 1 Part 2 submitted by
So I have been subbed to /bitcoin
since it had less than two thousand subs
but haven't posted there in years. I think I took a break from researching bitcoin to take a foray into the world of conspiracy around 2014 and only got back in to it around the beginning of 2017 but with a bit of sense of skepticism and cynicism about everything. I think I returned to /bitcoin
around that time but there had been a rift that had emerged in the community between those that said that bitcoin
was censoring any discussion around big blocks but then also just censorship in general. This lead to the formation of /btc
which became the main spot for big blockers to gather to talk about protocol development. Following the fork of Bitcoin Cash and SegWit (BTC) in August 2017 the camps were further divided when the fence sitters were denied their SegWit2x compromise. Many from the fence sitters then deferred back to the incumbent bitcoin as citing muh network effect, liquidity, and hashpower while some who felt betrayed by the failure of getting S2X through went to support BCH for some attempt at on chain scaling rather than through pegged side chains or Lightning Network.
Bitcoin cash initially went with a modest doubling of the blocksize to 2MB but implemented some other features like a new more rapidly adjusting difficulty algorithm to protect themselves against hashpower fluctuations from the majority chain. In about July of that year I had seen what I potentially thought was someone LARPing on /biz/ but screencapped, that segwit2x which was scheduled for november 2017 would be called off and then hashpower would switch to BCH causing congestion and chain death spiral on BTC and BCH would pump massively. I was partial to the idea as the game theory and incentives on a big block bitcoin should attract miners. About a month after SegWit2x was indeed called off while the BTC blockchain was hugely congested, BCH went through a violent pump reaching 0.5 BTC/BCH on a European exchange called Kraken while it also pumped ridiculously on American exchange coinbase. Shortly afterwards the market took a giant dump all over those people who bought the top and it has since retraced to roughly 30:1 or so now.
After that pump though BCH kind of gained some bagholders I guess who started to learn the talking points presented by personalities like Roger Ver, Jihan Wu, Peter Rizun and Amaury Sechet. Craig S Wright by this time had been outed as Satoshi but had in 2016 publicly failed to convince the public with the cryptographic proof he provided. To which he later published the article I don't have the courage to prove I am the bitcoin creator.
In essence this allowed many to disregard anything he offered to the crypto community though his company nChain was very much interested in providing the technical support to scale what he saw as the true implementation of bitcoin. Following debate around a set of planned protocol upgrades between a bitcoin node implementation by his company nChain and the developers of another client Bitcoin ABC (adjustable block cap), the two parties both dug their heels in and wouldn't compromise.
As it became clear that a fork was imminent there was a lot of vitriol tossed out towards Wright, another big billionaire backer Calvin Ayre and other personalities like Roger Ver and Jihan Wu. Craig's credibility was disregarded because of his failure to provide convincing cryptographic proof but still people who wanted to pursue the protocol upgrades that nChain were planning (as it best followed their interpretation of the bitcoin white paper) pursued his variant, while others who followed the socia consensus deferred to the positions of their personalities like Wu, Ver, and Sechet but even developers from Ethereum and other protocols chimed in to convince everyone that CSW is a fraud. This was referred to as the hash war and was the first time that the bitcoin protocol had been contentiously hard forked.
Hashpower is the CPU cycles you can commit to the Proof of Work function in bitcoin and the majority will generate the longest chain as they have the most proof of work. To win the contentious hard fork legitimately and make sure your chain will always be safe going forward you need to maintain your version of the blockchain with 51% of the hashpower on the network and force the other parties to continue to spend money on building a blockchain that is never going to be inserted in to the majority chain. As well as this you need to convince exchanges that you have the majority chain and have them feel safe to accept deposits and withdrawals so that they don't lose money in the chaos. This is how it would play out if both parties acted according to the rules of bitcoin and the Nakamoto Consensus.
There was a lot of shit talking between the two parties on social media with Craig Wright making a number of claims such as "you split, we bankrupt you
" "I don't care if there is no ability to move coins to an exchange for a year" and other such warnings not to engage in foul play.
. To explain this aftermath is quite tedious so It might be better to defer to this video
for the in depth analysis but basically Roger Ver had to rent hashpower that was supposed to be mining BTC from his mining farm bitcoin.com
, Jihan Wu did the same from his Bitmain Mining Farm which was a violation of his fiduciary duty as the CEO of a company preparing for an IPO. In this video of a livestream during the hashwar
where Andreas Brekken admits to basically colluding with exchange owners like Coinbase, Kraken (exchange Roger Ver invested in
and others to release a patched ABC client to the exchanges and introducing "checkpoints" in to the BCH blockchain
(which he even says is arguably "centralisation") in order to prevent deep reorgs of the BCH blockchain.
>"We knew we were going to win in 30 mins we had the victory because of these checkpoints that we released to a cartel of friendly businesses in a patch so then we just sat around drinking beers all day".
By releasing a patched client that has code in it to prevent deep reorgs by having the client refer to a checkpoint from a block mined by someone who supported BCHABC if another group of hash power was to try to insert a new chain history, this cartel of exchanges and mining farm operators conspired in private to change the nature of the bitcoin protocol and Nakamoto Consensus. Since the fork there have been a number of other BCH clients that have come up that require funding and have their own ideas about what things to implement on the BCH chain. What began to emerge was actually not necessarily an intention of scaling bitcoin but rather to implement Schnorr signatures to obfuscate transactions and to date the ABC client still has a default blocksize of 2MB but advertised as 16MB.
What this demonstrates for BCH is that through the collusion, the cartel can immediately get a favourable outcome from the developers to keep their businesses secure and from the personalities/developers to work on obfuscating records of transactions on the chain rather than scaling their protocol. After the SegWit fork, many from the BCH camp alleged that through the funding to Blockstream from AXA and groups that tied to the Bilderbergs, Blockstream would be beholden to the legacy banking and would be a spoke and hub centralised model, so naturally many of the "down with central banks anarcho capitalist types" had gathered in the BCH community. Through these sympathies it seems that people have been susceptible to being sold things like coin mixing and obfuscation with developers offering their opinions about how money needs to be anonymous to stop the evil government and central banks despite ideas like Mises’ Regression Theorem, which claims that in order for something to be money in the most proper sense, it must be traceable to an originally non-monetary barter commodity such as gold.
What this suggests is that there is an underlying intent from the people that have mechanisms to exert their will upon the protocol of bitcoin and that if obfuscation is their first priority rather than working on creating a scalable platform, this demonstrates that they don't wish to actually be global money but more so something that makes it easier to move money that you don't want seen. Roger Ver has often expressed sentiments of injustice about the treatment of Silk Road found Ross Ulbricht and donated a large amount of money to a fund for his defence. I initially got in to bitcoin seeking out the Silk Road and though I only wanted to test it to buy small quantities of mdma, lsd, and mescaline back in 2011 there was all sorts of criminal activity on there like scam manuals, counterfeits, ID, Credit Card info, and other darknet markets like armoury were selling pretty crazy weapons. It has been alleged by Craig Wright that in his capacity as a digital forensics expert he was involved with tracing bitcoin that was used to fund the trafficking of 12-16 year olds on the silk road. There have been attempts at debunking such claims by saying that silk road was moderated for such stuff by Ulbricht and others, but one only has to take a look in to the premise of pizza gate to understand that there it may be possible to hide in plain site with certain code words for utilising the market services and escrow of websites like the silk road. The recent pedo bust from South Korea demonstrates the importance of being able to track bitcoin transactions and if the first thing BCH wanted to do after separating itself from Satoshi's Vision and running on developer and cartel agendas was to implement obfuscation methods, this type of criminal activity will only proliferate.
Questions one must ask oneself then are things like why do they want this first? Are some of these developers, personalities and cartel businesses sitting on coins that they know are tarnished from the silk road and want to implement obfuscation practices so they can actually cash in some of the value they are unable to access? Merchants from the silk road 1 are still being caught even as recently as this year when they attempted to move coins that were known to have moved through the silk road. Chain analytics are only becoming more and more powerful and the records can never be changed under the original bitcoin protocol but with developer induced protocol changes like Schnorr signatures, and coinjoin it may be possible to start laundering these coins out in to circulation. I must admit with the cynicism I had towards government and law enforcement and my enjoying controlled substances occasionally I was sympathetic to Ross and donated to his legal fund back in the day and for many years claimed that I wouldn't pay my taxes when I wanted to cash out of bitcoin. I think many people in the space possess this same kind of mentality and subsequently can be preyed upon by people who wish to do much more in the obfuscation than dodge tax and party.
Another interesting observation is that despite the fact that btc
spun off as a result of censorship around big block scaling on bitcoin
, that subreddit itself has engaged in plenty of censorship for basically anyone who wants to discuss the ideas presented by Dr Craig Wright on that sub. When I posted my part 2 of this series in there a week ago I was immediately met with intense negativity and ad hominems so as to discourage others from reading the submission and my post history was immediately throttled to 1 comment every 10 mins. This is not quite as bad as cryptocurrency
where my post made it through the new queue to gather some upvotes and a discussion started but I was immediately banned from that sub for 7 days for reason "Content standards - you're making accusations based on no evidence just a dump of links that do nothing to justify your claims except maybe trustnodes link (which has posted fabricated information about this subreddit mods) and a Reddit post. Keep the conspiracy theories in /conspiracy
" My post was also kept at zero in bitcoin
so technically btc
was the least censored besides C_S_T
In addition to the throttling I was also flagged by the u/BsvAlertBot
which says whether or not a user has a questionable amount of activity in BSV subreddits and then a break down of your percentages. This was done in response to combat the "toxic trolls" of BSV but within bitcoincashSV
there are many users that have migrated from what was originally supposed to be a uncensored subreddit to discuss bitcoin and many such as u/cryptacritic17
has have switched sides after having been made to essentially DOXX themselves in btc
to prove that they aren't a toxic troll for raising criticisms of the way certain things are handled within that coin and development groups. Other prominent users such as u/jim-btc
have been banned for impersonating another user which was in actual fact himself and he has uploaded evidence of him being in control of said account to the blockchain. Mod Log
, Mod Damage Control
, Mod Narrative BTFO
. Interestingly in the comments on the picture uploaded to the blockchain you can see the spin to call him an SV shill when in actual fact he is just an OG bitcoiner that wanted bitcoin to scale as per the whitepaper.
What is essentially going on in the Bitcoin space is that there is a battle of the protocols and a battle for social consensus. The incumbent BTC has majority of the attention and awareness as it is being backed by legacy banking and finance with In-Q-Tel and AXA funding blockstream as well as Epstein associates and MIT, but in the power vaccum that presented itself as to who would steward the big block variant, a posse of cryptoanarchists have gained control of the social media forums and attempted to exert their will upon what should essentially be a Set In Stone Protocol
to create something that facilitates their economic activity (such as selling explosives online)
) while attempting to leverage their position as moderators who control the social forum to spin their actions as something different
is Roger Ver). For all his tears for the children killed in wars
, it seems that what cryptoanarchists such as u/memorydealers
want is to delist/shut down governments
and they will go to any efforts such as censorship to make sure that it is their implementation of bitcoin that will do that. Are we really going to have a better world with people easier able to hide transactions/launder money?
Because of this power vacuum there also exists a number of different development groups but what is emerging now is that they are struggling for money to fund their development. The main engineering is done by self professed benevolent dictator
Amaury Sechet (deadalnix
) who in leaked telegram screen caps appears to be losing it as funding for development has dried up and money raised in an anarchist fashion wasn't compliant with laws around fundraising sources
and FVNI (development society that manages BCH development and these donations) is run by known scammer David R Allen. David was founder of 2014 Israeli ICO Getgems (GEMZ) that scammed investors out of more than 2500 Bitcoins. The SV supported sky-lark
who released this information has since deleted all their accounts but other users have claimed that sky-lark was sent personal details about themselves and pictures of their loved ones and subsequently deleted all their social media accounts afterwards.
There are other shifty behaviours like hiring Japanese influencers to shill their coin
, recruiting a Hayden Otto that up until 2018 was shilling Pascal Coin
to become a major ambassador for BCH in the Australian city of Townsville. Townsville was claimed to be BCH city hosting a BCH conference there and claiming loads of adoption, but at the conference itself their idea of demonstrating adoption was handing a Point of Sale device to the bar to accept bitcoin payments but Otto actually just putting his credit card behind the bar to settle and he would keep the BCH that everyone paid. In the lead up to the conference the second top moderator of btc
was added to the moderators of townsville
to shill their coin but has ended up with the townsville
subreddit wanting to ban all bitcoin talk from the subreddit
Many of the BCH developers are now infighting as funding dries up and they find themselves floundering with no vision of how to achieve scale or get actual real world adoption. Amaury has recently accused Peter Rizun of propagandising, told multiple users in the telegram to fuck off and from all accounts appears to be a malignant narcissist incapable of maintaining any kind of healthy relationship with people he is supposed to be working with. Peter Rizun has begun lurking in bitcoincashSV
and recognising some of the ideas coming from BSV as having merit while Roger has started to distance himself from the creation of BCH
. Interestingly at a point early in the BCH history Roger believed Dr Craig Wright was Satoshi, but once CSW wouldn't go along with their planned road map and revealed the fact he had patents on blockchain technology and wanted to go down a path that worked with Law, Roger retracted that statement and said he was tricked by Craig. He joined in on the faketoshi campaign and has been attempted to be sued by Dr Wright for libel in the UK to which Roger refused to engage citing grounds of jurisdiction. Ironically this avoidance of Roger to meet Dr Wright in court to defend his claims can be seen as the very argument against justice being served by private courts under an anarchocapitalist paradigm with essentially someone with resources simply being able to either flee a private court's jurisdiction or engage a team of lawyers that can bury any chances of an everyday person being able to get justice.
There is much more going on with the BCH drama that can be explained in a single post but it is clear that some of the major personalities in the project are very much interested in having their ideals projected on to the technical implementation of the bitcoin protocol and have no qualms spouting rhetoric around the anti-censorship qualities of bitcoin/BCH while at the same time employing significant censorship on their social media forums to control what people are exposed to and getting rid of anyone who challenges their vision. I posit that were this coin to become a success, these "benevolent dictators" as they put it would love their new found positions of wealth/dominance yet if their behaviour to get there is anything to go by, would demonstrate the same power tripping practices of censorship, weasel acts, misleading people about adoption statistics and curating of the narrative. When the hashrate from Rogers bitcoin.com
minging operation on BCH dropped dramatically and a lot of empty blocks were being mined, his employer and 2IC moderator u/BitcoinXio
(who stepped in to replace roger as CEO) was in the sub informing everyone it was simply variance that was the reason when only a few days later it was revealed that they had reduced their hash power significantly. This is not appropriate behaviour for one of the primary enterprises engaged in stewarding BCH and encouraging adoption nor is the inability to be accountable for such dishonest practices as well. It seems bitcoin.com
as their own personal spam page where Roger can ask for donations despite it being against the sub rules and spin/ban any challenge to the narrative they seek to create.
Let's see how the censorship goes as I post this around a few of the same places as the last piece. Stay tuned for the next write up where I take a deep dive in to the coin that everyone doesn't want you to know about.
WARNING: WALL OF TEXT, HIGH SCIENCE CONTENT submitted by
Friends, shibes, it is my pleasure to speak with you for what I hope is the first and not the last time. I'm arrdem
, I'm a Doge daytrader, economist and miner on the side, and a programmer during the day. Today I'd like to have a chat about some of the rumors with regards to ASICs and the X11 hash that have been floating around /dogecoin
for the last few weeks and I hope bring some light to the discussions. On Scrypt
What is special about our hash function? Why does Bitcoin use SHA256 and why does Doge use Scrypt? The hash function used by each cryptocurrency must have no known inverse function or algorithmic weakness which allows miners to cheat and compute nonces easily, and it needs to be easy to verify or recompute given an input. The first requirement is obvious in that if the hash function is weak, then someone can achieve a 51% attack potentially with less than 51% of the network's hashing power. The second is less obvious and is in fact entirely a performance issue.
SHA256 is a known and trusted algorithm which has yet to exhibit any known weaknesses, and it is very very fast to recompute. This is why Bitcoin is SHA based.
Litecoin, the intellectual father of Dogecoin, chose the Scrypt hash function because it was a memory bound algorithm. That is, the slowest part of computing the Scrypt hash of some value is waiting for values to be fetched from memory: an operation which it is amazingly expensive to make fast. The goal of choosing an artificially expensive hash function was to escape the Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs or hardware miners) which had come to dominate Bitcoin mining. Because the SHA256 algorithm does not have large memory requirements, it was easy for Bitcoin speculators to develop cost effective hardware for the single purpose of searching for SHA256 nonce values. On ASICs
Before we get to whether ASICs are good or bad for a coin, we must first assess why they made sense for Bitcoin so that we can reason about their impact on Doge.
Because the computational power to find a nonce for any good cryptocurrency is expected to be large, that means there is a literal cost attached to processing each transaction on the network. While transactions may be nominally free or at least low fee, miners are really speculators expecting that someday the value of the coins they earn computing nonce values for blocks will exceed the operating costs and purchase costs of the hardware they mine with. This expectation that one day mining costs will be repaid is in fact the key reason that Bitcoin featured block rewards. The block reward was seen as a bootstrapping mechanic with which to buy hardware investment in the Bitcoin network through currency inflation.
Now, ASICs and other mining hardware only pay for themselves if one expects to get enough return from block rewards and future coin price increases to cover the purchase and operating costs of the hardware. However, this is where the block schedule comes in. If we expect that thanks to the law of large numbers
that one's return is on average the block reward times ones fraction of the network hashrate, it becomes clear that as the block reward falls it becomes very difficult for any purchased mining hardware to pay itself off let alone turn a profit especially as other miners purchase hardware to compete for the same block rewards thus driving up the hashrate. On the block schedule
Looking at the Bitcoin block schedule
, ASICs kinda make sense. The Bitcoin block schedule extends until 2140, at which time the "omega block" will be mined and the per block reward of Bitcoin mining will become zero. However until that time the per block reward will decrease 50% every four years. Today in 2014, the per block reward of Bitcoin is 25BTC and it won't change until 2017. That means that Bitcoin targeted ASICs can potentially run for three whole years or more and still have a reasonable chance of breaking even with no assuptions made about changes in the value of 1BTC. Doge's block schedule
looks completely different. Where Bitcoin has a long tail on its per block reward extending out to 2140, Dogecoin will reach it's minimum block reward at block 600,000 in January of 2015, less than 14 months after Dogecoin came into being. With the 3rd halvening about 11 days out and the 4th on the horizon, by the time big boy ASICs for Scrypt start shipping in Q3/Q4, being September and later, the per block reward of Doge will have fallen to 31.25KDOGE and below. Third generation ASICs slated for December and January will likely never see more than 15.625KDOGE/block. On the price of Doge
So what does this mean for the price of Doge? If the price of Doge doesn't increase at all, it's clear that the expensive new ASICs will never break even. This suggests that late comers with high powered mining hardware will be looking to recoup their investments and asking higher and higher prices for their Doge which should drive up the price overall.
To put some numbers on this, at current prices and hashrate, accounting for halvenings, neither Gridseed ASIC even breaks even within 200 days if purchased within the next 48hrs. fn:1
. Wait 30 days (after the comming halvening) and you don't come anywhere near break even. If I change my model to include some hashrate growth factor, the outlook is even worse. fn:2
This isn't bad news. This is awesome news for the price of DOGE. Lets say that Gridseed ships oh 500 units of their big boy ASIC, which may be conservative. fn:3
That's right, if hardware equivalent to 1K large Gridseeds came on in the next 30 days and ran at least for 200, doge would have to go all the way up to 702DOGE/USD just for them to break even! To the moon
So where does this leave us. I think that the numbers I've presented here show that ASICs for Dogecoin are patently absurd, unless you expect to see a gargantuan spike in the price of DOGE which would make us all rich men anyway. While I'm willing to speculate on block reward (which is easy to model) and on hashrate which I assume is more or less linear, I have no mechanism with which I can confidently predict the price of DOGE out more than a week. Naive linear projections from our initial open of 80 satoshi to today's 126 satoshi over the course of four months suggests that in 200 days we could well see the ~300 satoshi prices which would make Gridseed and other ASIC miners profitable. However once you account for the high volatility of Doge, of Bitcoin and general market manipulation who knows if it'd ever go that high stably.
So. To sum up. On the basis of these sketchy ROI numbers, I think that buying ASICs is probably ill advised. That said, I expect that people will buy ASICs and that in doing so they will drive up the price of DOGE at the same time as the supply of DOGE starts to dry up due to block reward decreases.
I will be interested to see what happens to DOGE mining in January, as we will be the first coin to reach their steady mining state. I hope that the 10,000 DOGE reward per block will be sufficient to support the ASIC and GPU mining required to keep our hashrate out of 51% threat, but only time will tell. There is a real threat that the ROI of mining will be too low to justify the purchase of new ASIC let alone GPU hardware, which would lead to a falling hashrate and a credible threat of 51% vulnerability. However we could also see prices to go to the moon in which case that is no worry as high efficiency ASIC farms would take over mining securing the coin's stability more or less. I will note that no coin has yet solved the 51% threat issues posed by centralized mining, and I'm personally convinced that it's an intractable problem because as rewards per block decrease as for bitcoin, the costs of mining operations must likewise fall leading to greater centralization of compute power. By fixing our block reward we may. may. be able to dodge (ha ha) this issue however the essential drive to cut mining prices for ROI maximization will remain and will continue to drive mining centralization.
With all this in mind, it's silly to talk about the adoption of X11 or another hashing algorithm, because if and when ASIC miners for DOGE become big business it'll already be too late and we will have already mined the vast majority of DOGE thus securing the distribution of DOGE away from the ASIC miners we seem to fear so much as a community. Making the switch to X11 simply delays the ASIC hardware which we want anyway due to the price increases it's likely to drive, forget about making us artificially dependent on GPU mining to secure our hashrate and creating an uncalled for blockchain fork. TL;DR
- Stop worrying and love the ASICs, they won't make a ton of money and will secure our hashrate and by proxy our Doges!
- STFU about X11. It's even more ASIC friendly than Scrypt, and we gain nothing from another blockchain fork.
- Price projection: moon!
- Open issue: How do we limit mining centralization without increasing inflation? Are we already at a balance point?
The software I've built and used to make these models is entirely open source and written in Clojure, see the footnotes for source and libraries.
Other programs involved
- Wording typo fixed
- Fix fn:2 to reflect increased network hashrate
- Don't bother asking me what I think the price of DOGE will be. Not the foggiest.
- Fix final block reward, 10k not 100k
- Fix omega block date for BTC, 2140 not 2024
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